SoftBank reported its fourth consecutive quarterly profit
its longest streak since 2021.
The shift from deficit to surplus has been jarring for even the most seasoned analysts.
The driver is singular: its concentrated stake in OpenAI.
At the center stands founder Masayoshi Son, who has transformed SoftBank from a diversified technology investor into what markets now treat as the primary public proxy for artificial intelligence.
The $19.8 Billion “OpenAI Effect”
By the end of 2025, SoftBank’s cumulative gain on OpenAI reached approximately $19.8 billion.
In the October–December quarter alone, OpenAI delivered
a $4.2 billion valuation uplift, pushing the Vision Fund decisively back into positive territory.
SoftBank now:
- Holds roughly 11% ownership in OpenAI
- Has committed over $30 billion directly
- Completed a total $41 billion aggregate commitment (including $11B from partners)
OpenAI is currently seeking funding at a valuation between $730 billion and $830 billion.
If marked at $830 billion, SoftBank’s existing stake would exceed $90 billion in value, potentially adding $30–$40 billion in additional unrealized gains to its 2026 results.
Wall Street increasingly frames SoftBank as “the only real way to play OpenAI in public markets.”
From Vision Fund Turbulence to AI Anchor
Only two years ago, the Vision Fund was still repairing damage from investments like WeWork. By late 2024, the fund faced a $23 billion deficit.
That deficit has now been nearly erased.
SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto recently described the OpenAI stake as stabilizing net asset value even as holdings such as ByteDance and Coupang experienced volatility.
The reversal has redefined the company’s balance sheet narrative.
Selling the Past to Finance the Future
To fund its AI expansion, SoftBank aggressively liquidated legacy holdings:
- Sold its $5.8 billion stake in NVIDIA
- Divested $12.7 billion in T-Mobile US shares
- Sold an additional $9.17 billion in T-Mobile shares on February 10, 2026, to prepare for potential follow on
OpenAI investment
This is not portfolio rebalancing.
It is strategic concentration.
Masayoshi Son is reallocating capital toward what he calls Artificial Superintelligence (ASI).
The $27 Billion Debt Engine
To fund its $22.5 billion December OpenAI payment,
SoftBank raised approximately $27 billion in new debt through a layered financing strategy:
- Expanded margin loans against its stake in Arm Holdings to $20 billion
- Increased borrowing against its domestic telecom subsidiary
- Arranged $15 billion in bridge financing
- Leveraged internal investment arm Northstar
This pushed SoftBank’s loan to value (LTV) ratio to 20.6% at the end of December.
However, if OpenAI’s valuation is remarked at $830 billion,
Nomura analysts estimate the LTV could decline to roughly 19.2%, providing a modest but meaningful safety buffer.
Still, SoftBank faces more than $20 billion in bond refinancing in 2026, meaning market confidence in OpenAI’s valuation will directly affect borrowing costs.
Masayoshi Son is effectively operating without a safety net, betting that valuation growth will outrun his debt obligations.
Project Stargate: The $500 Billion Compute Backbone
The structural core of this strategy is the Stargate Project, a $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative backed by:
- OpenAI
- Oracle
- Abu Dhabi’s MGX
- SoftBank
The goal: deploy 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity across the United States by 2029.
The first major facility in Texas is already operational, with additional land acquisitions accelerating capital deployment.
This infrastructure is essential for training next generation AI models at unprecedented scale.
Owning the AI Stack
SoftBank’s ambition extends beyond equity ownership.
It is engineering vertical integration across the AI stack:
Silicon:
Through its ~90% stake in Arm, SoftBank influences chip design tailored for AI workloads.
Infrastructure:
Its data center positioning supports OpenAI’s compute expansion.
Software Platform:
OpenAI delivers the core AI models and user facing systems.
Future Hardware:
OpenAI acquired Jony Ive’s design team in late 2025. While a device reveal is expected in late 2026, a sworn February 9, 2026 statement confirmed commercial shipping will not begin until February 2027 at the earliest.
Additionally, the previously reported “io” brand name has been abandoned following a trademark dispute, and the hardware project currently has no public branding.
The objective is clear: control chips, infrastructure, models, and eventually end user devices.
Few companies have attempted this degree of integration in a single technology cycle.
The Financial Strain Beneath the Momentum
OpenAI is projected to lose at least $14 billion in 2026, with some internal projections suggesting losses could exceed that figure due to accelerated infrastructure spending.
Cash burn may rise toward $47 billion by 2028.
Profitability is not expected before 2029.
This makes SoftBank’s strategy highly duration-sensitive. It depends on sustained valuation growth during a period of significant cash outflow.
The $830 Billion Inflection Point
If OpenAI closes a funding round near $830 billion:
- SoftBank’s 11% stake gains approximately 66% in marked value
- Unrealized gains could exceed $36 billion
- LTV pressure eases
- Refinancing leverage improves
The valuation is not symbolic.
It directly influences SoftBank’s financial stability.
The Market’s Current View (Q1 2026)
Markets now treat SoftBank less as a diversified conglomerate and more as a leveraged AI vehicle.
The transformation is strategic and deliberate.
Masayoshi Son is no longer merely investing in the AI revolution.
He is financing its infrastructure, shaping its silicon, and anchoring its leading software platform.
If OpenAI achieves scale and eventual profitability, this could become one of the most consequential capital allocations of the decade.
If AI valuations compress before 2029, SoftBank’s leverage becomes a constraint rather than a catalyst.
The next 24 to 36 months will determine which narrative prevails.